Quantum Computing vs Modern Encryption | Latest University Findings

Table of Contents

• What Is Quantum Computing?
• Modern Encryption Basics
• The Quantum Threat to Encryption
• Latest University Findings
• Post-Quantum Cryptography: The Solution
• Challenges and Future Directions
• Conclusion
• Frequently Asked Questions

What Is Quantum Computing?

Quantum computing is a revolutionary technology that uses the principles of quantum mechanics—the science of particles at the smallest scales. Unlike traditional computers, which process information using bits (0s or 1s), quantum computers use quantum bits, or qubits. Qubits can exist in multiple states simultaneously, thanks to properties like superposition and entanglement. This allows quantum computers to perform certain calculations much faster than classical computers.

For example, while a classical computer might take years to crack a complex math problem, a quantum computer could solve it in minutes. This speed is exciting for fields like medicine and physics but poses a significant challenge to cybersecurity, particularly encryption.

Modern Encryption Basics

Encryption is like a digital lock that protects your data. It scrambles information so only someone with the right key can unscramble it. Today’s encryption systems fall into two main categories:

• Symmetric Encryption: Uses one key to both lock and unlock data. The Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) is a common example, used for things like securing credit card transactions.
• Asymmetric Encryption: Uses two keys—a public key to lock data and a private key to unlock it. RSA and Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC) are widely used for secure web browsing and email.

These systems rely on math problems that are hard for classical computers to solve, like factoring large numbers or solving discrete logarithm problems. For instance, RSA encryption depends on the difficulty of factoring a massive number into its prime factors. A classical computer might take billions of years to crack a 2048-bit RSA key, making it secure for now.

The Quantum Threat to Encryption

Quantum computers could change the game. A key algorithm called Shor’s algorithm, developed by Peter Shor in 1994, allows quantum computers to factor large numbers exponentially faster than classical computers. This means a powerful quantum computer could break RSA and ECC encryption in hours or even minutes, rendering much of today’s encryption useless.

Another algorithm, Grover’s algorithm, poses a threat to symmetric encryption like AES. It can speed up brute-force attacks, cutting the time needed to guess a key. For example, AES-256, which has 2^256 possible keys, is considered secure against classical computers. Grover’s algorithm could reduce the search time to the square root of that number, making it less secure but not as vulnerable as asymmetric systems.

The fear isn’t just theoretical. Researchers warn of “harvest now, decrypt later” attacks, where attackers collect encrypted data today and wait for quantum computers to become powerful enough to decrypt it. This is especially concerning for sensitive data like medical records or government secrets that need to stay secure for decades.

Latest University Findings

Universities are at the forefront of studying quantum computing’s impact on encryption. Here’s what recent research reveals:

• Technical University of Munich (2025): Researchers proposed a new approach to Shor’s algorithm using just one qubit and three quantum oscillators, leveraging continuous variables instead of discrete bits. This could reduce the resources needed to break encryption, suggesting that quantum threats might arrive sooner than expected. However, this is still a theoretical model and not yet practical.
• University of Waterloo (2024): Dr. Michele Mosca estimated a 1-in-7 chance that public-key encryption could be broken by 2026 and a 50% chance by 2031. This highlights the urgency of transitioning to quantum-safe systems.
• [](https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/quantum-safe-cryptography)
• University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign (2025): Cryptographers Dakshita Khurana and Kabir Tomer explored quantum one-way state generators, a new foundation for quantum cryptography. Their work shows that quantum physics could bypass traditional math problems, offering a path to quantum-safe encryption.
• [](https://www.quantamagazine.org/quantum-scientists-have-built-a-new-math-of-cryptography-20250725/)
• Simulations at Other Universities (2025): Studies using NIST’s Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC) testing suite and IBM’s Qiskit framework tested quantum attacks on RSA and ECC. Results showed that algorithms like CRYSTALS-Kyber perform well in resisting quantum attacks, with encryption times varying by only ±0.05 ms across tests.
• [](https://www.ej-compute.org/index.php/compute/article/view/146)

These findings suggest that while quantum computers capable of breaking encryption (called cryptanalytically relevant quantum computers, or CRQCs) are still years away, the timeline is shrinking. Most experts agree that a quantum computer with millions of qubits is needed to break RSA-2048, and current systems, like Google’s Willow chip with 105 qubits, are far from that goal.

[](https://www.innoedgeco.com/2025/01/10/the-rise-of-quantum-computing-will-your-current-encryption-be-useless-in-five-years/)

Post-Quantum Cryptography: The Solution

To counter the quantum threat, researchers are developing post-quantum cryptography (PQC)—encryption methods designed to resist quantum attacks. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) has been leading this effort since 2015, finalizing four quantum-resistant algorithms in 2024: CRYSTALS-Kyber, CRYSTALS-Dilithium, Sphincs+, and FALCON.

[](https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/nist-releases-first-3-finalized-post-quantum-encryption-standards)

Here’s a comparison of traditional and post-quantum encryption methods:

Lattice-based cryptography, used in algorithms like CRYSTALS-Kyber, relies on geometric problems that are hard for both classical and quantum computers to solve. For example, finding the shortest path in a high-dimensional lattice is incredibly complex, making it a strong candidate for quantum-safe encryption.

[](https://www.techtarget.com/searchdatacenter/feature/Explore-the-impact-of-quantum-computing-on-cryptography)

Another approach is Quantum Key Distribution (QKD), which uses quantum mechanics to share keys securely. If someone tries to intercept the key, the quantum state changes, alerting the sender and receiver. QKD is already being tested in secure communication networks.

[](https://www.ej-compute.org/index.php/compute/article/view/146)

Challenges and Future Directions

Transitioning to PQC isn’t easy. Here are some challenges universities and organizations face:

• Legacy Systems: Many older systems can’t support PQC without major upgrades, which are costly and time-consuming.
• [](https://www.isc2.org/Insights/2025/05/quantum-computing-future-of-cryptography)
• Interoperability: Mixing classical and quantum-resistant systems can create compatibility issues in large networks.
• Crypto-Agility: Organizations need systems that can quickly switch to new algorithms if vulnerabilities are found.
• [](https://www.securityweek.com/cyber-insights-2025-quantum-and-the-threat-to-encryption/)
• Timeline Uncertainty: Experts disagree on when CRQCs will arrive—some say 5 years, others 30. This makes planning tricky.
• [](https://www.innoedgeco.com/2025/01/10/the-rise-of-quantum-computing-will-your-current-encryption-be-useless-in-five-years/)

Despite these challenges, universities are optimistic. Collaborative efforts, like NIST’s PQC standardization, show that global cooperation is possible. Future research will focus on testing PQC algorithms on real quantum hardware and improving their efficiency for everyday use.

[](https://www.ej-compute.org/index.php/compute/article/view/146)

Conclusion

Quantum computing is a double-edged sword: it promises incredible advancements but threatens the security of our digital world. University findings from places like the Technical University of Munich and the University of Waterloo show that quantum computers could break traditional encryption sooner than we think, with algorithms like Shor’s and Grover’s posing real risks. However, solutions like post-quantum cryptography and Quantum Key Distribution offer hope. By adopting these new standards and planning for a quantum future, we can protect our data. The race is on, and with continued research and collaboration, we can stay one step ahead of the quantum threat.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is quantum computing?

Quantum computing uses quantum mechanics to process information with qubits, which can exist in multiple states, allowing faster computations for certain problems.

How does quantum computing differ from classical computing?

Classical computers use bits (0 or 1), while quantum computers use qubits that can be both 0 and 1 simultaneously, enabling exponential speed for specific tasks.

What is encryption?

Encryption scrambles data to protect it, using keys to lock and unlock it, ensuring only authorized people can access it.

Why is quantum computing a threat to encryption?

Quantum algorithms like Shor’s can solve math problems that underpin encryption, like factoring large numbers, much faster than classical computers.

What is Shor’s algorithm?

Shor’s algorithm, developed in 1994, allows quantum computers to factor large numbers quickly, threatening asymmetric encryption like RSA.

What is Grover’s algorithm?

Grover’s algorithm speeds up brute-force attacks on symmetric encryption, reducing the time needed to guess keys.

What is post-quantum cryptography?

Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) includes encryption methods designed to resist attacks from quantum computers, like lattice-based algorithms.

What is Quantum Key Distribution (QKD)?

QKD uses quantum mechanics to securely share encryption keys, detecting any interception attempts through changes in quantum states.

Are current encryption methods safe?

For now, yes, as quantum computers aren’t powerful enough yet, but they could become vulnerable within 5–30 years.

When will quantum computers break encryption?

Estimates vary from 5 to 30 years, with some experts predicting a 50% chance by 2031.

[](https://www.ibm.com/think/topics/quantum-safe-cryptography)

What are NIST’s PQC standards?

NIST finalized four quantum-resistant algorithms in 2024: CRYSTALS-Kyber, CRYSTALS-Dilithium, Sphincs+, and FALCON.

[](https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/nist-releases-first-3-finalized-post-quantum-encryption-standards)

What is lattice-based cryptography?

It’s a type of encryption based on geometric lattice problems, which are hard for both classical and quantum computers to solve.

Can symmetric encryption withstand quantum attacks?

It’s less vulnerable than asymmetric encryption but can be weakened by Grover’s algorithm, requiring larger key sizes.

What is a “harvest now, decrypt later” attack?

Attackers collect encrypted data today to decrypt it later when quantum computers are powerful enough.

How far are we from cryptanalytically relevant quantum computers?

Most experts estimate at least a decade, as millions of qubits are needed, far beyond current systems like Google’s Willow chip.

[](https://www.innoedgeco.com/2025/01/10/the-rise-of-quantum-computing-will-your-current-encryption-be-useless-in-five-years/)

What are universities doing about the quantum threat?

They’re researching quantum algorithms, testing PQC, and developing new cryptographic foundations, like quantum one-way state generators.

[](https://www.quantamagazine.org/quantum-scientists-have-built-a-new-math-of-cryptography-20250725/)

Why is transitioning to PQC challenging?

Upgrading legacy systems, ensuring interoperability, and achieving crypto-agility are complex and costly.

[](https://www.isc2.org/Insights/2025/05/quantum-computing-future-of-cryptography)

Can organizations prepare for quantum threats now?

Yes, by adopting NIST’s PQC standards and hybrid cryptographic solutions that combine classical and quantum-safe methods.

What role does crypto-agility play?

Crypto-agility allows systems to switch to new algorithms quickly if vulnerabilities are found, crucial for quantum readiness.

[](https://www.securityweek.com/cyber-insights-2025-quantum-and-the-threat-to-encryption/)

How can I learn more about PQC?

Check NIST’s website (nist.gov) for resources and updates on post-quantum cryptography standards.